World Cup 2014 - Final thoughts

• Year of the Horse driven predictions were spot on - except that I got a little cute and bet on Brazil vs Argentina finals. We all now know how that turned out.
• Just like in 2010, every person in my office thinks Germany is the best team ever. They are the best team in the tournament no doubt, but the semi-final result like an Arsenal like Brazil betrays some of the troubles they have had in the earlier rounds. Lots of possession, but at times no incisive penetration. Just like Bayern Munich in the Champions league this year. So to believe that Germany is going to walk it, just makes the odds better on ARG.
• Most articles I read talk about it going to be a match up between the best player Messi vs the German machine. Yes, Messi has got them important goals this tournament, but its the organisation of the midfield (Masceranho being the man) and defence thats held them out. Infact, I think Messi has in a way stopped from their other attack minded players from hitting top gear - not his fault, but it happens. I wager that Aguero will be the key man patrolling the front for Argentina today.
• My money is on Argentina as I think they will win, but my emotional favourites remain Germany. 
• Louis Van Gaal is Mourinho mark 1. So all Man Utd fans need to forget attacking flowing football from now and get prepared for highly anal tactical maneouvring, which I hope will fail more often than not. And life begins and ends with Louis Van Gaal - just like his prodigy.
• Alexis Sanchez has signed. An early signing - whats going on, I say? Lets hope that we have half as many injuries this year - its time that we deserve that luck on that front.

 

World Cup - 2014 - Year of the Horse - & predictions

I watched my first game last Saturday, 2 weeks into the tournament. Argentina vs Iran and was impressed by the efficiency of the Iranians. Pity that they had to eventually lose to a Messi super strike.

Which brings us to my traditional lunar calendar World Cup predictions. Year of the Horse analysis points to Argentina as the winner. Looking back at the Horse WCs, the following points emerged:

• Germany, in its different forms, have appeared in 4 WC finals and won 2. Sequence being W-L-W-L
• Argentina appeared in 3 WC finals and lost 2. Sequence = L-W-L. Therefore, should win their 4th appearance and complete the Yang of the German circle
• Only other Horse winners have been Uruguay & England
• All 4 were first time winners, so there is a chance for a first time winner. Who could that be? Holland? Portugal? Croatia?
• Other fact worth remembering, and which has nothing to do with lunar calendars, is that no non-South American country has won a WC in S America 
• Therefore, the Yang theory and Argentina it is  

After going through match-by-match excel predictions, I arrived at Brazil vs Argentina finals. Looking at the other entries at the work pool, it was the most popular combination and the choice of the eventual winners being split 50:50. The consensus forecast has got me excited - in all likelihood, at least one of them will fall short. Brilliant..

My team of the tournament so far (and coincidentally my pre-tournament dark "Horse" pick), and has inspired me to go get their jersey, has been: Chile. They are looking so very solid that I am concerned that they will get unlucky and go out in an ugly penalty shoot out. Apart from the well known faces in Europe of Arturo Vidal, Eduardo Vargas and Alexis Sanchez, I know little of this team. Will be digging for more over the next few days.

My Arsenal led favourites (France in 2006, Holland in 2010) happen to be the other Horse WC strong men - Germany. Entirely because of the well-loved German contingent in North London these days. From our captain, Per Mertsersacker, to the soon-to-be-talisman of the club, Mesut Ozil and the hamster inspired left-wing striker, Lukas Podolski. 

Chile vs Holland kicks off in about 30 minutes. Fortunately no lucky beers and shit. Lets hope the commentary is good.