10 days into the World Cup, and there haven't been too many unprecedented results so far. With the last league match left for each group, there could be a surprise or two awaiting us. My picks have performed quite dodgily - actually turning out to be the likely upsets of the first round!! But as any punter would tell you, one has to review views based on market reality and get on with it.
(Like to clarify that my bets are based on the risk-reward metric; before anyone questions my intelligence)
First, a look at my picks at the beginning of the tournament:
1) Group G
France: poor team morale, age, internal strife & poor choice of 1st team is holding back this team. And after a couple of draws, they could well be packed up yet again in the first round. I suppose I took a Nick Leeson type punt on the team, hoping that things could not possibly get worse. As Mr. Leeson learnt, apparently it can.
View: France (No. 2) would squeeze through with a win against Togo. The Swiss would bow out despite a win against the Togans, as they would lose/held to a draw against the Koreans (No. 1). As you can see, I am not cutting losses on this one yet.
2) Group E
Czechs: Got blasted by an extremely impressive Ghana side. Very likely to exit in the 1st round stage, as they would be unable to beat the Italians because of the numerous injured forwards and ageing mid-field.
View: Ghana (No. 1) will take care of the Americans and finish first against all odds. They would join the Italians (No. 2) . A definite upset. Am cutting loss in this case, in the wake of the impressive African performance.
Now, lets go through the other countries in alphabetical order.
3) Group A
Ecuador and Germany already through to the 2nd round. Who will top the group? Think it would be a draw between Ecuador (No. 1) & Germany (No. 2) and Ecuador topping the group on better goal difference. Another upset of sorts.
4) Group B
On current form, would go with a draw between England (No. 1) and Sweden (No. 2). If one of them had to win, I would think it will be England. If Sweden loses and T&T win agst the Paraguans, Sweden will go through on a better goal record.
5) Group C
The Group of Death has turned out to be straight forward, at least when one looks at the results. Think the Argentenians (No. 1) should finish the league stage comfortably as 1, followed by the Dutch (No. 2) i.e. ARG will beat the Dutch in their final game. ARG: a good bet for a title win - cohesive, young and attacking with defense looking tight, so far atleast.
6) Group D
No matter what transpires between Angolans and the Iranians, Portugal (No. 1) & Mexico (No. 2) should go through. One of the more boring groups in the league phase.
7) Group F
I see the Croats (No. 2) pulling off this one against the Aussies, in a last gasp qualification. And ofcourse the Brazilians (No. 1).
8) Group H
Spain (No. 1), another fav based upon performance in their first match - should top this Group with 3 wins. Another, brilliant recovery will see the Ukranians (No. 2) scrambling through to the next round.
Winner of World Cup: Going through quickly with the rest of my World Cup calculator, it emerges that England will be the next World Cup winner.
Ahem! Looks like this too will be revised at the next review, which will be held prior to the beginning of Round 2 i.e. 23Jun06.
In this round, I have made 32 predictions (choice of teams & positions), lets see how many will be spot on. Please let me know if anyone is prepared to give me 10-1 odds that atleast 50% of the predictions would be 'right'.
No comments:
Post a Comment